When and how will the coronavirus pandemic end?

SHARE WITH FRIENDS:

COVID-19 has spread to more than 1 million people worldwide, and as many countries introduce quarantine to slow this pandemic, the question that most people are asking now is: “When will all this end?«

The answer to this question depends in many ways on the ambiguity about the coronavirus, as well as the fact that a person can be infected more than once, and how fast scientists around the world produce the vaccine.

1. So how does this end?

There is an opinion that a pandemic only ends with the formation of mass immunity. In this case, enough people in the community are protected from the virus and the virus does not infect anyone and disappears on its own. There are two ways to achieve this result. The first is mass vaccination. In doing so, researchers need to develop a vaccine that is safe and effective against the coronavirus, and governments need to deliver it to people in sufficient quantities. The second way of forming mass immunity is a bit unpleasant: In this case, most people in the society become infected with the virus and their immunity naturally develops the ability to resist the disease.

2. What will we do until then?

In many countries, quarantine is being introduced to slow the spread of the virus. Businesses and schools are closed, public meetings are banned, and people are encouraged to stay home. The main goal is to prevent many people from becoming infected. If this is not done, the health care system in the countries will fail and many people will die. This method takes longer. In doing so, authorities and health workers conduct mass surveys, monitor the infection chain, and create conditions for the treatment of patients. Of course, this work will take longer.

3. When will quarantine restrictions be lifted?

People should not expect life to return to normal quickly. Removing restrictions too early poses new risks. Authorities in China have begun reopening the pandemic city of Wuhan just two months after the siege cut it off. In this city the disease was almost over. But the measures taken by China were stricter than those of other countries, and now at least one region has been re-quarantined. Jenny Harrich, Britain's deputy chief medical officer, said quarantine measures should last up to two, three or six months. Professor Annelies Wilder-Smith of London recommends that quarantine restrictions be maintained until the number of people infected with the virus per day continues to decline for at least two weeks.

4. What happens next?

According to a “road map” presented by U.S. health professionals, including Scott Gottlieb, schools and businesses will reopen, but restrictions on public meetings will remain in place. People continue to walk farther away from each other, and those who are more resistant to the disease are advised to limit their participation in the crowd. If the spread of the virus increases again, the restrictions will be tightened. The plan, drawn up by researchers at Imperial College London, is more stringent. According to their version, people’s contacts should be reduced by 75 percent before mass immunity is formed. At this stage, it is important to create the conditions for many people to be screened anyway. In the U.S., at least 750,000 people a week need to be screened.

5. Why is screening so important?

This virus is causing a lot of damage. This is not because it can lead to death, but because he is “cunning”. That is, most patients feel well and go to work. As a result, they unknowingly spread the virus to others. It is therefore important to check everyone who has symptoms of the disease. In this way it is possible to isolate the sick and to find and examine all the people who are in close contact with them. This limits the spread of the virus.

6. Why is your location important?

Authoritarian states like China can impose strict controls on people’s movement. At the same time, health workers pursue policies such as door-to-door visits, quarantine and control to check people’s fever. This will be more difficult for other states. Poor states cannot easily cover the economic losses caused by long-term restrictions. They do not have a health infrastructure that has the ability to control everyone.

7. How long can the vaccine be ready?

Dozens of companies and universities around the world are working on creating a vaccine. But there is no guarantee that they will celebrate. The development of a vaccine is usually a long and complicated process, requiring many years of testing to ensure that the drug is safe and effective. In the fight against coronavirus, some aim to prepare a vaccine in 12-18 months. Scientists are also relying on new technologies, such as technologies that add viral genetic material to human cells and produce proteins that affect immunity. Experts say that humanity should not be in a hurry about the good news. Whether these methods will work or whether companies will be able to prepare enough vaccines is still an abstract issue.

8. What about the second method of forming mass immunity?

First, it occurs only if people who have recovered from the infection have long-term immunity to the disease. With coronavirus, this is still unknown. It is also unknown how many people should be infected with the virus in order to form mass immunity. For example, in order to develop immunity against diphtheria, 75% of people had to fight measles and 91% of people had to fight the disease. Patrick Vallans, chief scientific adviser to the UK government, said in February that 60 per cent of people needed to be infected with the coronavirus in order to develop immunity in humans.

9. Are there other options?

Good luck to us and the virus may stop in the northern hemisphere of the planet with the onset of summer. However, it is unknown what role warm weather plays in the spread of coronavirus. Although the spread of the disease has decreased, it may return in the fall. Some hope that very effective therapy will help or that antiviral drugs will be found.